New generation of QBs emerge but league faces threats

MIAMI (Reuters) - A new generation of talented quarterbacks emerged in 2012 but a refereeing fiasco, worries over concussions and player behavior all left their mark on the National Football League (NFL).
The year was also a tantalizing tale of the Mannings with New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning winning his second Super Bowl title in four years with a win over New England in the same stadium where older brother Peyton played for Indianapolis.
After a year out with serious neck problems, Peyton Manning restarted his career with the Denver Broncos after 14 years with the Colts and quickly cast aside any doubts over his durability by leading his team to a playoff berth and division title.
Manning's revival came at the expense of Tim Tebow, the most talked about player in 2011, who has spent most of this year on the sidelines after being traded to the New York Jets.
'Tebow-mania' reached its peak in January when he led the Broncos to a playoff win over Pittsburgh but a crushing loss to the New England Patriots a week later was the last in a Denver uniform for the unorthodox quarterback.
Tebow's charisma, his noted religiosity and clean-cut good looks made him one of the most popular NFL players in years but that did not stop Jets head coach Rex Ryan leaving him as a bit-player and back-up to Mark Sanchez with most critics agreeing that Tebow's poor passing technique has hampered his career.
Tebow's fans understandably view 2012 as a year in which an exciting player's talent was wasted but in the big picture there has been no shortage of exciting new talent to enjoy in the NFL.
It was hard to imagine anyone exceeding the record-breaking impact made in 2011 by Carolina Panthers rookie quarterback Cam Newton but it did not take long for the top two picks in this year's NFL Draft, Indianapolis's Andrew Luck and Washington's Robert Griffin III respectively, to make an impact.
Luck ushered in the post-Manning era faster than anyone had imagined, with his outstanding passing and classy composure indicating he is a player who could enjoy similar dominance to his predecessor.
Griffin, or RG3 as he is widely known, is a different quarterback altogether - his speed and courage make him a genuine double-threat, able to rush but he is also, as critics of Tebow have noted, an accomplished pocket passer too.
Seattle's Russell Wilson and Miami's Ryan Tannehill have also made good impressions in their rookie years and with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and the Mannings still on top of their game, it has become an era of unprecedented passing yards for quarterbacks.
NASTY UNDERBELLY
Given the key role quarterbacks play, the abundance of talent at the position should mark a golden-era for America's most popular league but the game has a nasty underbelly which has been revealed on several occasions this year.
The NFL has long been plagued by off-field problems, most notably domestic violence, gun crime and drunk driving, and there have been tragic examples of all three this year.
Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Jovan Belcher fatally shot his girlfriend at their home moments before killing himself in front of his coach and general manager at the team's training facility in December.
A week later, Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Josh Brent was charged with intoxication manslaughter after the car he was driving flipped over and caught fire, killing team mate Jerry Brown, a passenger in the car.
In May, former San Diego Chargers linebacker Junior Seau, a 12-time Pro Bowl selection, was found dead at his home in May, with a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the chest.
The manner of Seau's death and his families willingness to let his brain be examined for evidence of the impact of repeated injuries from his playing days, brought the issue of concussions back into focus.
Over 1,500 former football players have sued the NFL over head injuries and there have been accusations that the league concealed links between the game and brain injuries.
The NFL has disputed those allegations and points to its intensive education work on the issue and also the stricter new regulations covering treatment of players who are concussed.
BOUNTY PROGRAM
Concern over the potential impact of excessive violence on players was also behind NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell's strong sanctions against the New Orleans Saints, a story that hung over the league for much of the year.
The Saints were accused of running a bounty program from 2009-2011 that gave players cash rewards for knocking opponents out of games.
While Saints head coach Sean Payton was suspended for the entire season and other members of the coaching staff received shorter bans, much of the attention was on the sanctions given to four players, all of whom had their punishments overturned.
The decision by former NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue, with little compelling reasoning behind it, was a strange end to an affair which did little good for the league's image.
That image also took a hit from the contract dispute with referees which led to an early season lockout and resulted in some farcical decisions By the replacement referees.
The dispute culminated in botched call in a nationally televised game that handed Seattle victory over Green Bay and caused so much outrage that a deal was swiftly reached for the regular refs to return in early in the season.
But while referee dispute, off-field troubles, bounty schemes and concussion fears generated plenty of negative attention for the league they did nothing to weaken the NFL's position as the dominant sport in North America and the top draw on U.S. television.

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BYU LB Van Noy scores 2 TDs in Poinsettia Bowl win

SAN DIEGO (AP) — Linebacker Kyle Van Noy forced a fumble in the end zone and recovered it for a touchdown, and scored on a 17-yard interception return, both in the fourth quarter, to lead BYU to a 23-6 victory over San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl on Thursday night.
The big plays swung the momentum for the Cougars (8-5) in what had been a tedious defensive struggle. San Diego State (9-4), playing in the hometown bowl for the second time in three years, missed the chance for its first 10-win season since 1977 and had its seven-game winning streak snapped.
Van Noy scored the game's first TD when he came free and hit Adam Dingwell in the end zone, forcing and recovering a fumble for a 10-6 lead.
Dingwell fumbled the snap on SDSU's next play from scrimmage and it was recovered by Jordan Johnson at the 14. Jamaal Williams scored on a run up the middle on the next play, BYU's second TD in 17 seconds.

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Fiscal cliff efforts ongoing, Boehner offers plan

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner pushed ahead on negotiating a broad deal to avert the "fiscal cliff," even as the GOP leader readied a backup plan Tuesday to pressure the White House with little time left to avoid a double hit on the economy.

With exactly two weeks to automatic tax hikes and spending cuts, Boehner offered a measure, dubbed "plan B," that would cancel tax increases due to take effect Jan. 1 on everyone earning $1 million or less, while allowing tax increases on those earning more than that amount.

Boehner insisted that his plan would address the burgeoning deficits and that the president has failed to produce a balance plan in weeks of post-election negotiations.

But the speaker's alternative was a non-starter with the White House and Democrats, and perhaps more damaging to its prospects, got a frosty reception from rank-and-file House Republicans in a morning closed-door meeting.

"The president is willing to continue to work with Republicans to reach a bipartisan solution that averts the fiscal cliff, protects the middle class, helps the economy, and puts our nation on a fiscally sustainable path," White House spokesman Jay Carney said. "But he is not willing to accept a deal that doesn't ask enough of the very wealthiest in taxes and instead shifts the burden to the middle class and seniors."

GOP aides said the leadership strategy is to pass the alternative plan in the House and send it to the Senate. There, Republicans would use their clout to block Democratic alternatives.

Even as he offered his alternative plan, Boehner indicated that negotiations with Obama continue on avoiding the fiscal cliff. Economists inside and outside the government have warned that the combination of spending cuts and tax hikes could stall a weak recovery and threaten a new recession.

"I continue to have hope that we can reach a broader agreement with the White House" that would cancel the tax increases and spending cuts now poised to begin in early January, Boehner, R-Ohio, told reporters.

But he said when it comes to offering a package that balances tax increases with spending cuts, "The president is not there yet."

Boehner presented his alternative to his GOP caucus, which reacted coolly to any plan that includes an increase in the tax rate. Conservatives and tea partyers signaled that Boehner faces a tough time rounding up the votes.

"I think it's a terrible idea," said Rep. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho. "For a lot of reasons."

When asked whether there was enough support among fellow Republicans to pass it, Labrador said, "I do not."

Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, said he is in favor of preventing tax hikes for as many taxpayers as possible, but he's not ready to support Boehner's plan.

"I didn't see enough specificity to support it," Chaffetz said.

Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, the outgoing chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, said, "I'm not doing cartwheels over it, that's for sure."

Jordan said Boehner's plan crosses a dangerous line by enacting higher tax rates for anyone.

"I think it's a mistake for the Republican Party, so that's what I think a lot of members are struggling with," said the Ohio Republican.

In the Senate, Democratic Leader Harry Reid said the Boehner plan could not pass and urged the speaker to work out an agreement with the president.

"Now is the time to show leadership, not kick the can down the road," Reid said. "Speaker Boehner should focus his energy on forging a large-scale deficit reduction agreement. It would be a shame if Republicans abandoned productive negotiations due to pressure from the tea party, as they have time and again."

In addition to allowing a tax increase for million-dollar earners, the Boehner plan would prevent an expansion of the alternative minimum tax that would otherwise hit 28 million middle- and upper-class Americans with an average $3,700 increase on their 2012 tax returns.

The plan also would extend the current maximum 35 percent tax rate on inheritance, exempting the first $5 million. That tax rate is slated to rise to 55 percent on Jan. 1, with only a $1 million exemption.

Under the plan, the automatic, across-the-board spending cuts of $1.09 trillion to domestic and defense programs would go into effect.

Boehner said GOP efforts to cull savings from Medicare by increasing the eligibility age from 65 to 67 could wait until next year. That source of savings had been an important demand from Republicans earlier in Boehner's negotiations with the White House.

Boehner aides said the call for a separate tax bill does not mean the Republican is cutting off negotiations with Obama on averting the full slate of tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect next year. Obama and Boehner have each made significant concessions in recent days, signaling a new stage in the negotiations.

Boehner's latest move is an attempt to give Republicans political cover if Washington fails to reach a deal before the end of the year and taxes increase on all income earners.

In the negotiations, the president has dropped his long-held insistence that taxes rise on individuals earning more than $200,000 and families making more than $250,000. He is now offering a new threshold of $400,000 and lowering his 10-year tax revenue goals from the $1.6 trillion he had argued for a few weeks ago.

Obama and Boehner met privately at the White House on Monday, and then spoke again on the phone later that night. Boehner huddled with House GOP members on Capitol Hill Tuesday morning to discuss the status of the talks and review Obama's latest offer.

"We have to stop whatever tax rate increases we can," Boehner said in the meeting, according to prepared remarks released by an aide. "In the absence of an alternative, as of this morning, a "modified Plan B" is the plan."

Unless Congress acts, tax rates will increase on all income earners on Jan. 1. Boehner first opposed raising rates on any income earners, including the wealthiest Americans, but agreed on Friday to accept an increase in tax rates for taxpayers who earn more than $1 million. Boehner's plan would raise about $1 trillion in taxes over 10 years.

In return, Obama also abandoned his demand for permanent borrowing authority. Instead, he is now asking for a new debt limit that would last two years, putting its renewal beyond the politics of a 2014 midterm election.

And in a move sure to create heartburn among some congressional Democrats, Obama is proposing lower cost-of-living increases for Social Security beneficiaries, employing an inflation index that would have far-reaching consequences, including pushing more people into higher income tax brackets.

Those changes, as well as Obama's decision not to seek an extension of a temporary payroll tax cut, would force higher tax payments on the middle class, a wide swath of the population that Obama has repeatedly said he wanted to protect from tax increases.

As public posturing has given way to pragmatism, both sides still seem willing to lock in on a substantial agreement rather than just putting off a fiscal day of reckoning. To that end, Obama has conceded that a big bargain would require giving up some of his proposals.

"I understand that I don't expect the Republicans simply to adopt my budget," he said during his post-election news conference last month. "That's not realistic. So, I recognize we're going to have to compromise."

Despite signs of progress, there are still plenty of disputes to iron out. And people familiar with Obama's proposal were careful not to describe it as his final offer.

The Obama plan seeks $1.2 trillion in revenue over 10 years and $1.2 trillion in 10-year spending reductions. Boehner aides say the revenue is closer to $1.3 trillion if revenue triggered by the new inflation index is counted, and they say the spending reductions are closer to $930 billion if one discounts about $290 billion in lower estimated debt interest.

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ECB'S Praet says France must cut spending and reform

PARIS (Reuters) - France must cut spending to meet its budget deficit target and undertake structural reforms to boost competitiveness, European Central Bank Executive Board Member Peter Praet said on Tuesday.

President Francois Hollande has pledged to slash the public deficit to 3 percent of economic output next year from an estimated 4.5 percent this year, but has so far shied away from deep-reaching spending cuts many economists say are necessary.

In an interview with French daily Le Figaro, Praet said the government's deficit-cutting plans relied too much on tax rises, and that over the long term it was vital to implement reform.

"France has too often resisted change," Praet said.

"There is a consensus now in France on the need to improve public finances and competitiveness. To do that, structural reform is needed."

France's Socialist government launched a public spending review on Tuesday, but stopped short of outlining budget cuts, focusing instead on streamlining administrative procedures in order to find savings.

At 57 percent of GDP, France's public spending is among the highest in the developed world, and Praet said deeper measures were needed to change the structure of outlays to keep finances on track.

Last month's decision to cut labour costs by introducing tax rebates for companies was a step in the right direction, he said, but the move was financed by tax rises such as a hike in VAT which would ultimately limit its impact.

Moody's rating agency last month stripped France of its triple-A credit rank, warning it would downgrade the country's debt further if the government failed to implement reforms such as a labour market overhaul.

The agency said the growth forecasts built into the government's medium-term budget plan were overly optimistic, and changes need to be made to rigid labour laws and to goods and services markets to make the country more competitive.

France's growth forecast of 0.8 percent for next year has been questioned by economists, given that the broader euro zone economy has slipped into recession.

Praet said that despite the economic downturn, France and other countries in the bloc should not back away from meeting a 3 percent deficit target.

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Wall Street climbs on economy bets as it looks past "cliff"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S.  stocks rallied on strong volume on Tuesday, capping off the S&P 500's best two-day run in a month, on confidence that a deal would be struck in Washington to avoid painful spending cuts and tax hikes that could hurt the economy.

Banks, energy and technology - sectors that would benefit during economic expansion - led gains as investors remain confident that lawmakers will come to an agreement to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff" deadline at the end of the year.

The PHLX oil services sector index <.osx> jumped 3.1 percent, with eight of its 15 components up 3 percent or more.

"The view is that the economy is getting better, and that is always good for energy demand," said Shawn Hackett, president at Hackett Financial Advisors in Boynton Beach, Florida.

Hackett said the United States would avoid "whatever the cliff means" for the economy, allowing investors to focus on growth.

President Barack Obama's most recent offer to Republicans in the ongoing budget talks makes concessions on taxes and social programs spending. House Speaker John Boehner said the offer is "not there yet," though he remains hopeful about an agreement. Senate Democrats, however, have expressed concern about cuts to Social Security.

Financial stocks shot higher, as traders bet on a greater demand for loans and a steepening of the yield curve. U.S. government debt sold off Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note's yield briefly hitting its highest since late October.

The S&P financial sector <.gspf> added 1.5 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 115.57 points, or 0.87 percent, to 13,350.96 at the close. The S&P 500 <.spx> gained 16.43 points, or 1.15 percent, to 1,446.79. The Nasdaq Composite <.ixic> added 43.93 points, or 1.46 percent, to 3,054.53.

It was the S&P 500's first back-to-back gain of more than 1 percent since late July.

Stocks of smaller companies outperformed the broader market, with the Russell 2000 <.rut> up 1.5 percent.

Shares of firearm makers sank in the aftermath of a school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, on Friday that killed 20 young children and six adults.

Smith and Wesson fell 10 percent to $7.79 on its largest-ever daily volume, though it was still up about 77 percent so far this year. Sturm Ruger and Co slid 7.7 percent Tuesday to $40.60.

Private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management said it would sell gunmaker Freedom Group, whose Bushmaster AR-15 rifle was used in the Connecticut massacre. Dick's Sporting Goods suspended the sale of certain semi-automatic rifles in its stores nationwide.

Technology shares rose, led by Apple , up 2.9 percent at $533.90 after losing nearly 13 percent in the last two weeks. The S&P Information Technology Index <.gspt> rose 1.7 percent.

Arbitron Inc surged 23.6 percent to $47.03 after Nielsen Holdings NV agreed to buy the media and marketing research firm in a deal worth $1.26 billion. Nielsen rose 4.4 percent to $30.92.

About 7.4 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, more than the daily average so far this year of about 6.5 billion shares.

On the NYSE, roughly 14 issues rose for every five that fell, while on the Nasdaq, advancers outnumbered decliners by a ratio of about 5 to 2.

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Analysis: U.S. policy gridlock holding back economy? Maybe not

(Reuters) - Washington thinks a resolution of the tense debate over the national debt will unlock a burst of economic growth by lifting uncertainty that has stymied investment.

It is a widely held view on Wall Street as well, derived from the glaring signs of weak business confidence over the last year as America struggles to get its fiscal house in order.

However, evidence for this belief is far from clear and is an issue of considerable debate, and even some businesses wonder how big a factor uncertainty is.

In Lexington, Kentucky, new sales are slipping at Gray Construction, a family-owned builder of factories and distribution centers. Clients say they are holding back because America could fall into recession if Congress and the White House don't strike a deal soon to avoid a "fiscal cliff" of some $600 billion in tax increases and government spending cuts due to begin in January.

"They're saying: 'Let's wait. Let's see what happens,'" Chief Executive Stephen Gray said.

And yet, the company, which also does design and engineering work, still has a record backlog of work and has hired about 30 people in the last six months.

The company's CEO has seen little dips in the sales pipeline before and said it's hard to know how different business would be if Washington's politicians inspired more confidence. As it is, Gray sees no reason to stop hiring: "I'm not super-worried."

Like Gray, economists are also unsure how much they can attribute business decisions to something so indeterminate as uncertainty, and they are divided over the degree to which erratic policymaking has dragged on the economy in recent years, if it has at all.

Answering this question could give important clues on how the economy will perform next year, whether or not Congress strikes a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff.

HOLDING BACK

Toward that end, researchers at Stanford University and the University of Chicago have created an index to gauge just how murky the future looks.

They count soon-to-expire tax provisions and mentions of uncertainty in major newspapers, as well as how much economic forecasters disagree on things like future government spending.

In a sample period between 1985 and 2011, they found heightened uncertainty went hand in hand with weak economic growth and hiring. Their index hit an all-time high last year when congressional gridlock nearly led the United States to default on its debt. It remains high, with a host of temporary tax cuts due to expire at year's end and the debate over the fiscal cliff regularly splashed across front pages.

Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford economist who helped make the uncertainty index, says weak levels of investment, along with surveys in which businesses say they are holding back because of concerns over the direction of policy, suggest uncertainty has weighed on growth since late 2011.

This year, business investment on capital goods - things like equipment and machinery - has fallen short of what economists would expect considering the $1.7 trillion in cash that companies were holding in the third quarter.

New orders for non-defense capital goods other than aircraft fell 7 percent in the year through October, while total business investment in the third quarter dropped the most since 2009.

Bloom says businesses would spend their cash more readily if politicians united around a grand bargain to put U.S. fiscal policy on a stable path. Using past correlations between uncertainty and economic growth as a guide, he estimates that lifting uncertainty could add about 3 percent to gross domestic product over the next 18 months - enough growth to create roughly 2 million jobs.

"There should be a surge of investment and hiring," he said.

That would be a big boost to the lackluster 1.9 percent growth rate many economists expect next year.

A deal in Congress that avoids the fiscal cliff while taming the nation's $16 trillion debt over the long term may come by year-end or in early 2013. It is also plausible Washington will avoid the fiscal cliff but kick the can into 2013 when it comes to the details of longer-term deficit planning.

Republican House Speaker John Boehner, who has looked exasperated in public over the fiscal debate, has edged closer to President Barack Obama's key demands in the last few days, and the president made a counteroffer on Monday that could put a deal within reach. The two sides still differ on where to set tax rates and how to overhaul social spending programs.

The tense negotiations have corporate America on edge.

So far this month, companies have submitted 148 statements to the Securities and Exchange Commission expressing concern about the fiscal cliff. In November, there were 215 such warnings, up from 80 in October and none prior to May. About half of 200 big companies surveyed by American Express last month said Congress won't resolve the fiscal cliff this year.

Chemical maker DuPont is trimming its capital investment plans due to uncertainty. "We're not going to spend as much as we thought next year," DuPont CEO Ellen Kullman said last week in an interview.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told CNBC earlier this month that reaching a sensible fiscal deal would get rid of the biggest roadblock to stronger growth. Many business leaders and lawmakers agree.

NO SURE THING

However, some economists doubt uncertainty has played such a central role holding back the U.S. economy. If they are right, growth next year could disappoint even if politicians wow investors with a grand bargain.

Researchers at Goldman Sachs say the weak economy might be boosting measures of uncertainty as much as the other way around.

The bank doesn't rule out an "uncertainty shock" over the next few months - most economists think uncertainty must matter for something - but its researchers crunched numbers and found there might be a simpler explanation for the disappointing levels of business spending.

The bank's economists calculated how much the business sector would normally be investing given its assets and the stage of the business cycle, and found the recent shortfall could be mostly explained by a lack of available credit.

Rather than being too scared to invest, companies might simply be having trouble getting loans. That makes sense considering many banks are still licking their wounds from the recent financial crisis.

"The evidence that a policy uncertainty shock is already depressing activity is far from unequivocal," Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a recent note.

Their research suggests some of the hype over uncertainty is overblown. Indeed, much of the country is not paying attention to the fiscal cliff debate.

A poll by Gallup conducted December 1-2 showed only 60 percent of Americans were following the talks at least somewhat closely. In the history of national events tracked by Gallup, that ranks somewhere between the Iraqi election of 2005 and the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito in 2006.

Households, whose spending drives more than two-thirds of the economy, are not as worried as the country's CEOs, although a recent consumer sentiment survey showed concerns appeared to grow in early December.

Some economists say the most important issue for Congress is not to resolve policy uncertainty but rather to strike a fiscal deal that doesn't hurt the economy by ushering in harsh budget austerity measures.

Surveys of small businesses show companies are worried about higher taxes, but over the last few months and years they have worried even more about poor sales. Adjusting for inflation, household incomes are still lower than they were before the recession. This has depressed spending, a situation that could be exacerbated by tighter fiscal policy.

"The biggest uncertainty is whether the U.S. consumer is really back," said Stephanie Kelton, an economist at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.

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South Africa's Zuma boosted by Ramaphosa return in ANC win

BLOEMFONTEIN, South Africa (Reuters) - South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) re-elected President Jacob Zuma as its leader on Tuesday, setting him up for seven more years as head of state of Africa's biggest economy.

Nelson Mandela's 100-year-old liberation movement also chose respected businessman Cyril Ramaphosa as his deputy, seeking to repair the image of a Zuma administration battered by corruption scandals and strikes and facing growing discontent among the poor black majority.

More than 4,000 ANC delegates crammed into a marquee in the central city of Bloemfontein erupted into wild cheers when Zuma was confirmed in the top party post after comfortably seeing off a challenge by Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe.

Given the ANC's dominance at the ballot-box less than two decades after the end of apartheid, 70-year-old Zuma is virtually assured a second, five-year term as President of South Africa in 2014 elections.

The rand briefly edged higher against the dollar, reflecting relief among investors at the prospect of policies remaining largely unchanged.

After the vote, the beaming president, who secured 2,995 votes out of 3,977 cast, walked on stage to shake hands with his fellow 'comrades' - a label reflecting the ANC's roots in the communist-backed struggle against decades of white-minority rule.

Zuma, a polygamous Zulu traditionalist, came to power in 2009 amid the first recession in 18 years and has had a chequered economic record, culminating in violent labor unrest in the mines this year that triggered two downgrades in South Africa's credit ratings.

He has also been dogged by personal scandals, including fathering a child by the daughter of a close friend. Despite this, his popularity within the party is overwhelming.

"I don't care what people say about Jacob Zuma," said Sinovuyo Kley, a delegate from the impoverished Eastern Cape. "When you hear him sing, you know he is one with the people. He speaks our language and knows our struggles."

RAMAPHOSA RETURNS

Zuma's re-election had looked likely for much of the year, making the main talking point of the five-day Bloemfontein conference the political renaissance of Ramaphosa after a decade-long absence to focus on his business interests.

Attention was also diverted by the arrest of four whites on suspicion of a plot to bomb the meeting and execute Zuma and top ministers as part of a plan to carve an independent Afrikaner state out of Mandela's "Rainbow Nation".

Having risen to prominence as a charismatic union leader in the 1980s, Ramaphosa became the ANC's main negotiator in the talks that led to historic all-race elections in 1994 and Mandela's appointment as South Africa's first black president.

He was also tipped as a successor to the revered Mandela - now 94 and recovering in hospital from a lung infection - but gradually removed himself from politics when the job went to party stalwart Thabo Mbeki in 1999.

It was unclear just how much impact Ramaphosa's inclusion in Zuma's inner circle could have on the ANC government.

Some analysts say he should help push through plans to lift long-term economic growth and stop South Africa's competitive slide against fast-growing economies in Asia and South America.

However, others who know his business style told Reuters he tended not to throw his weight around in company board-rooms, suggesting he might avoid challenging South Africa's politically powerful unions.

"He is surprisingly quiet and non-confrontational on boards," one person who knows Ramaphosa said.

Others suggest that his ranking as South Africa's second richest black businessman could limit his appeal to the legions of poor and jobless who are increasingly doubting the ANC's post-apartheid promise to deliver "a better life for all".

LOOMING DOWNGRADE

"Looking further ahead, we remain doubtful that Zuma can oversee the reforms needed to pull the South African economy out of its current rut," said Shilan Shah, Africa economist at UK-based Capital Economics.

There is precious little time to make an impact, with Fitch expected in January to follow Moodys and Standard & Poor's in cutting South Africa's credit rating because of concerns about sluggish growth, forecast at 2.5 percent this year.

"The leadership issue is never really decisive for the market," said Nomura emerging markets analyst Peter Attard-Montalto. "It's always interested in policy and that's far more what the ratings agencies are looking at."

Zuma may also find his Bloemfontein victory dance cut short, with a poll published this week putting his nationwide approval rating at 52 percent, in contrast to 70 percent for the outgoing Motlanthe. This reflects just how much the internal politics of the ruling ANC is insulated from daily realities.

The opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) is starting to make in-roads into ANC support at local and regional level despite its reputation among many black South Africans as the party of white privilege. The DA said it had been inundated with membership inquiries within an hour of Zuma being re-elected.

Even within his own party, young South Africans are snapping at Zuma's heels, demanding political and economic change for a generation that has little memory of apartheid but which remains at the sharp end of 25 percent unemployment.

"The young people of South Africa are tired of promises and need action for economic freedom in our lifetime," the ANC Youth League, which had backed Motlanthe, said in a statement.

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Oregon Mall Shooting: Man Kills 2, Self in Rampage

A masked gunman opened fire today at Clackamas Town Center, a mall in suburban Portland, Ore., killing two people, injuring one, and then killing himself. "I can confirm the shooter is dead of an apparent self inflicted gunshot wound," Lt. James Rhodes of the Clackamas County, Ore., Sheriff's Department said today. "By all accounts there were no rounds fired by law enforcement today in the mall." Police have not released the names of the deceased. Rhodes said authorities are in the process of notifying victims' families. The injured victim has been transported to a local hospital. Rhodes described the shooter as an adult male. Witnesses from the shooting rampage said that a young man in a white hockey mask and bulletproof vest tore through the Macy's, food court, and mall hallways firing rounds at shoppers beginning around 3:30 p.m. PT today. Hundreds of people were evacuated from the busy mall full of holiday shoppers after the shooting began. READ: Guns in America: A Statistical Look The gunman entered the mall through a Macy's store, ran through the upper level of Macy's and opened fire near the mall food court, firing multiple shots, one right after another, with what is believed to be a black, semiautomatic rifle, according to witness reports. Amber Tate said she was in the parking lot of the mall when she saw the shooter run by, wearing a mask and carrying a machine gun, headed for the Macy's. "He looked like a teenager wearing a gun, like a bullet-proof vest and he had a machine, like an assault rifle and a white mask and he looked at me," she said. Witnesses described the shooter as being on a mission and determined, looking straight ahead. He then seemed to walk through the mall toward the other end of the building, shooting along the way, according to witness reports. Those interviewed said that Macy's shoppers and store employees huddled in a dressing room to avoid being found. "I was helping a customer in the middle of the store, her and her granddaughter and while we were looking at sweatshirts we heard five to seven shots from a machine gun fire just outside my store," Jacob Rogers, a store clerk, told ABC affiliate KATU-TV in Portland. "We moved everyone into the back room where there's no access to outside but where there's a camera so we can monitor what's going on out front," Rogers said. Evan Walters, an employee at a store in the mall, told ABC News Radio that he was locked in a store for his safety and he saw two people shot and heard multiple gunshots. "It was over 20, and it was kind of surreal because we hear pops and loud noises," he said. "We're next to the food court here and we hear pops and loud noises all the time, but we don't -- nothing like that. It was very definite gunshots." Police are tracing the weapon used in the shooting.

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N. Korea Launches Long-Range Missile

North Korea has successfully launched a long-range rocket and appears to have put "an object" into orbit, NORAD officials said today. North American Aerospace Defense Command officials said U.S. missile warning systems detected and tracked the launch of a North Korean missile at 7:49 p.m. ET. The first stage appeared to fall into the Yellow Sea and the second stage was assessed to fall into the Philippine Sea, the officials said. Initial indications are that the missile deployed an object that appeared to achieve orbit, NORAD said. At no time was the missile or the resultant debris a threat to North America. North Korea insists the launch of the long-range Unha-3 rocket is simply part of a peaceful space program, but the U.S. and key Asian allies believe it is a disguised attempt to test a long range ballistic missile that could deliver a nuclear warhead and one day, with development, reach the United States. It is the country's fourth attempt to launch a long-range missile, and by far its most successful. In lanuches in 1998 and in 2009 they succeed in separating the second stage. In 2006 and in April 2012 both launch attempts failed only minutes after liftoff. If the North Koreans succeed in separating the third stage, the rocket could reach as far as Los Angeles. A South Korean military official confirmed that one of their three warships equipped with Aegis radar system detected the launch. The first stage fell just below Byunsan, southwest of the Korean peninsula, exactly where it was supposed to, according to the official. Japanese chief government spokesman Osamu Fujimura said the launch occurred at 9:49 a.m. and the rocket passed over Okinawa at 10:01 am. The secretive regime had been saying it would launch the rocket, but over the weekend announced plans of a possible delay due to "unspecified reasons." Official state media blamed the delay on a technical glitch. A statement from the Korean Committee of Space Technology claimed Monday that scientists and technicians "found a technical deficiency in the first-stage control engine module of the rocket carrying the satellite." Satellite images also revealed that a new third-stage booster was delivered to the launch pad on Saturday. The United States has mobilized four warships in the Asia-Pacific region to monitor and possibly shoot down the launch. The guided missile destroyer the USS John S. McCain and the guided missile cruiser the USS Shiloh join the USS Benfold and USS Fitzgerald, also guided missile destroyers, to "reassure allies in the region" according to officials. Though some analysts in South Korea expressed doubts that a launch would actually take place this year, citing poor weather in addition to the technical challenges, South Korea had upped its defense level to "Watchcon 2," which is issued when there is a possible viable threat to the nation. South Korea usually occupies a "Watchcon 3" status due to the official state of war with the North. North Korea's actions are timely as many notable events overlap this month. Dec. 17 marks the one year anniversary of the country's Dear Leader Kim Jong-il's death. Analysts believe his son and successor, Kim Jong-Un, is under pressure to show the world he is intent on continuing his father's "Military First" policy and demonstrate a show of strength. The planned rocket launch is also seen as a political statement. It may coincide with the South Korean presidential election, scheduled for Dec. 19. For presidential candidate Park Geun-hye in particular, North Korea holds particular meaning. Her father, Park Chung-hee, served as the South Korean president for 16 years. He was the target of multiple assassination attempts by North Korea. One of those effort killed his wife, Chung-hee's mother. Park took over her mother's duties as first lady until her father was assassinated by the chief of security in 1979. Park re-emerged in 1997 as an active politician. She is the first female candidate to be seriously considered for president. Her party, the Saenuridang, is a traditionally conservative group that adapts a stricter policy towards North Korea than her opponent, Moon Jae-in. As head of the Democratic United Party, he champions a more lenient approach to the South's belligerent neighbor.

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Indian sitar virtuoso Ravi Shankar dies at 92

NEW DELHI (AP) — With an instrument perplexing to most Westerners, Ravi Shankar helped connect the world through music. The sitar virtuoso hobnobbed with the Beatles, became a hippie musical icon and spearheaded the first rock benefit concert as he introduced traditional Indian ragas to Western audiences over nearly a century. From George Harrison to John Coltrane, from Yehudi Menuhin to David Crosby, his connections reflected music's universality, though a gap persisted between Shankar and many Western fans. Sometimes they mistook tuning for tunes, while he stood aghast at displays like Jimi Hendrix's burning guitar. Shankar died Tuesday at age 92. A statement on his website said he died in San Diego, near his Southern California home with his wife and a daughter by his side. The musician's foundation issued a statement saying that he had suffered upper respiratory and heart problems and had undergone heart-valve replacement surgery last week. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also confirmed Shankar's death and called him a "national treasure." Labeled "the godfather of world music" by Harrison, Shankar helped millions of classical, jazz and rock lovers discover the centuries-old traditions of Indian music. "He was legend of legends," Shivkumar Sharma, a noted santoor player who performed with Shankar, told Indian media. "Indian classical was not at all known in the Western world. He was the musician who had that training ... the ability to communicate with the Western audience." He also pioneered the concept of the rock benefit with the 1971 Concert For Bangladesh. To later generations, he was known as the estranged father of popular American singer Norah Jones. His last musical performance was with his other daughter, sitarist Anoushka Shankar Wright, on Nov. 4 in Long Beach, California; his foundation said it was to celebrate his 10th decade of creating music. The multiple Grammy winner learned that he had again been nominated for the award the night before his surgery. "It's one of the biggest losses for the music world," said Kartic Seshadri, a Shankar protege, sitar virtuoso and music professor at the University of California, San Diego. "There's nothing more to be said." As early as the 1950s, Shankar began collaborating with and teaching some of the greats of Western music, including violinist Menuhin and jazz saxophonist Coltrane. He played well-received shows in concert halls in Europe and the United States, but faced a constant struggle to bridge the musical gap between the West and the East. Describing an early Shankar tour in 1957, Time magazine said. "U.S. audiences were receptive but occasionally puzzled." His close relationship with Harrison, the Beatles lead guitarist, shot Shankar to global stardom in the 1960s. Harrison had grown fascinated with the sitar, a long-necked string instrument that uses a bulbous gourd for its resonating chamber and resembles a giant lute. He played the instrument, with a Western tuning, on the song "Norwegian Wood," but soon sought out Shankar, already a musical icon in India, to teach him to play it properly. The pair spent weeks together, starting the lessons at Harrison's house in England and then moving to a houseboat in Kashmir and later to California. Gaining confidence with the complex instrument, Harrison recorded the Indian-inspired song "Within You Without You" on the Beatles' "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band," helping spark the raga-rock phase of 60s music and drawing increasing attention to Shankar and his work. Shankar's popularity exploded, and he soon found himself playing on bills with some of the top rock musicians of the era. He played a four-hour set at the Monterey Pop Festival and the opening day of Woodstock. Though the audience for his music had hugely expanded, Shankar, a serious, disciplined traditionalist who had played Carnegie Hall, chafed against the drug use and rebelliousness of the hippie culture. "I was shocked to see people dressing so flamboyantly. They were all stoned. To me, it was a new world," Shankar told Rolling Stone of the Monterey festival. While he enjoyed Otis Redding and the Mamas and the Papas at the festival, he was horrified when Hendrix lit his guitar on fire. "That was too much for me. In our culture, we have such respect for musical instruments, they are like part of God," he said. In 1971, moved by the plight of millions of refugees fleeing into India to escape the war in Bangladesh, Shankar reached out to Harrison to see what they could do to help. In what Shankar later described as "one of the most moving and intense musical experiences of the century," the pair organized two benefit concerts at Madison Square Garden that included Eric Clapton, Bob Dylan and Ringo Starr. The concert, which spawned an album and a film, raised millions of dollars for UNICEF and inspired other rock benefits, including the 1985 Live Aid concert to raise funds for famine relief in Ethiopia and the 2010 Hope For Haiti Now telethon. Ravindra Shankar Chowdhury was born April 7, 1920, in the Indian city of Varanasi. At the age of 10, he moved to Paris to join the world famous dance troupe of his brother Uday. Over the next eight years, Shankar traveled with the troupe across Europe, America and Asia, and later credited his early immersion in foreign cultures with making him such an effective ambassador for Indian music. During one tour, renowned musician Baba Allaudin Khan joined the troupe, took Shankar under his wing and eventually became his teacher through 7 1/2 years of isolated, rigorous study of the sitar. "Khan told me you have to leave everything else and do one thing properly," Shankar told The Associated Press. In the 1950s, Shankar began gaining fame throughout India. He held the influential position of music director for All India Radio in New Delhi and wrote the scores for several popular films. He began writing compositions for orchestras, blending clarinets and other foreign instruments into traditional Indian music. And he became a de facto tutor for Westerners fascinated by India's musical traditions. He gave lessons to Coltrane, who named his son Ravi in Shankar's honor, and became close friends with Menuhin, recording the acclaimed "West Meets East" album with him. He also collaborated with flutist Jean Pierre Rampal, composer Philip Glass and conductors Andre Previn and Zubin Mehta. "Any player on any instrument with any ears would be deeply moved by Ravi Shankar. If you love music, it would be impossible not to be," singer Crosby, whose band The Byrds was inspired by Shankar's music, said in the book "The Dawn of Indian Music in the West: Bhairavi." Shankar's personal life, however, was more complex. His 1941 marriage to Baba Allaudin Khan's daughter, Annapurna Devi, ended in divorce. Though he had a decades-long relationship with dancer Kamala Shastri that ended in 1981, he had relationships with several other women in the 1970s. In 1979, he fathered Norah Jones with New York concert promoter Sue Jones, and in 1981, Sukanya Rajan, who played the tanpura at his concerts, gave birth to his daughter Anoushka. He grew estranged from Sue Jones in the 80s and didn't see Norah for a decade, though they later re-established contact. He married Rajan in 1989 and trained young Anoushka as his heir on the sitar. In recent years, father and daughter toured the world together. The statement she and her mother released said, "Although it is a time for sorrow and sadness, it is also a time for all of us to give thanks and to be grateful that we were able to have him as part of our lives." When Jones shot to stardom and won five Grammy awards in 2003, Anoushka Shankar was nominated for a Grammy of her own. Shankar himself won three Grammy awards and was nominated for an Oscar for his musical score for the movie "Gandhi." His album "The Living Room Sessions, Part 1" earned him his latest Grammy nomination, for best world music album. Despite his fame, numerous albums and decades of world tours, Shankar's music remained a riddle to many Western ears. Shankar was amused after he and colleague Ustad Ali Akbar Khan were greeted with admiring applause when they opened the Concert for Bangladesh by twanging their sitar and sarod for a minute and a half. "If you like our tuning so much, I hope you will enjoy the playing more," he told the confused crowd, and then launched into his set.

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White House, Boehner quietly swap ‘fiscal cliff’ offers

President Barack Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner spoke Tuesday after privately exchanging a new round of rival proposals for keeping the economy from tumbling off the "fiscal cliff" on Jan. 1, aides to both men told Yahoo News. The fresh discussion signaled a welcome bit of movement in negotiations that had appeared stalled for several days. "The speaker and POTUS (the president of the United States) spoke by telephone this evening," a White House official said on condition of anonymity. A Boehner aide said the White House had presented a new offer on tax cuts and revenue increases on Monday and that Republicans had returned with a counter-offer on Tuesday. The White House refused to offer details about its proposal. But the Boehner aide said the new offer brought Obama's initial demand for $1.6 trillion in new tax revenues down to $1.4 trillion. The step would still require raising tax rates on wealthier Americans, something Boehner has previously rejected. Obama has said any final deal must raise tax rates on the richest Americans. Boehner spokesman Michael Steel confirmed that the speaker's office had returned a counter-offer to the president but would not disclose many specifics. "We sent the White House a counter-offer that would achieve tax and entitlement reform to solve our looming debt crisis and create more American jobs," Steel said. Earlier Tuesday, the speaker himself complained that Obama hadn't been specific enough about the spending cuts he was prepared to embrace as part of a broader deficit-cutting plan. "Let's be honest, we're broke," Boehner said on the House floor. "We're still waiting for the White House to identify what spending cuts the president is willing to make as part of the 'balanced approach' that he promised the American people." Also Tuesday, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid warned it was unlikely that lawmakers and the White House would be able to forge a compromise in time for Christmas, raising the prospect of a high-stakes game of chicken through the end of the year. "It's going to be extremely difficult to get it done before Christmas—but it could be done," the Nevada Democrat told reporters. "This is not something we can do easily, at least as far as bill drafting goes. But until we hear something from the Republicans, there's nothing to draft." Reid's comments reflected the sense of gloom across the Capitol in recent days about prospects for averting automatic across-the-board tax hikes and painful government spending cuts that, together, could plunge the economy in a new recession. Those measures will take effect Jan. 1 unless Congress acts. Obama had no public appearances Tuesday. His spokesman, Jay Carney, acknowledged the White House was deliberately being "incredibly opaque" about the behind-the scenes negotiations. "If it weren't for the broader interest here, which is in trying to allow some space for the parties to see if they can achieve a compromise, you know, I'd be spilling my guts from here," Carney said. At their weekly party lunch meetings on Capitol Hill, senators complained about the secrecy surrounding the talks. Alabama Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions said Boehner "doesn't have my proxy" in cutting a deal with Obama. "I've been elected, I've got a responsibility to make an independent determination of these matters," Sessions said. Why the secrecy? Republican Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio told Yahoo News that "you need to build a level of trust first by not having it negotiated in the media." "You need an opportunity, particularly with the president and Republican congressional leaders, to talk about some very tough issues," he said. Still, Portman said, "they can't expect those of us who going to ultimately decide what happens in the Senate to vote on it without having a full understanding and input." For Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad of North Dakota, a Democrat who is retiring, the problem is less the back-room dealing and more the posturing for the cameras. "It's the same old lines over and over. How about just going into a room and getting a deal?" he said. For his part, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tried to steer the focus back to his party's preferred terrain: spending cuts. He listed a series of programs he considered wasteful, citing government promotion of a videogame that allows teens "to relive prom night." "Get this: Taxpayers also just spent $325,000 on a Robotic squirrel named RoboSquirrel," he said. "The president seems to think that if all he talks about are taxes, and that's all reporters write about, somehow the rest of us will magically forget that government spending is completely out of control, and that he himself has been insisting on balance." The Republican push came as party insiders privately acknowledged that they've placed themselves in a significant PR bind by insisting that tax cuts for middle class earners can only be extended if they are preserved for wealthier Americans as well. Obama wants to tax rates on income above $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for families, a position Boehner and other Republican leaders have rejected. "We're terribly weak on this, the tax component," one congressional Republican said.

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Michigan lawmakers approve right-to-work bills

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Over the chants of thousands of angry protesters, Republican lawmakers made Michigan a right-to-work state Tuesday, dealing a devastating and once-unthinkable defeat to organized labor in a place that has been a bastion of the movement for generations. The GOP-dominated House ignored Democrats' pleas to delay the final passage and instead approved two bills with the same ruthless efficiency that the Senate showed last week. One measure dealt with private-sector workers, the other with government employees. Republican Gov. Rick Snyder signed them both within hours, calling them "pro-worker and pro-Michigan." "This is about freedom, fairness and equality," House Speaker Jase Bolger said during the floor debate. "These are basic American rights — rights that should unite us." After the vote, he said, Michigan's future "has never been brighter, because workers are free." The state where the United Auto Workers was founded and labor has long been a political titan will join 23 others with right-to-work laws, which ban requirements that nonunion employees pay unions for negotiating contracts and other services. Supporters say the laws give workers more choice and support economic growth, but critics insist the real intent is to weaken organized labor by encouraging workers to "freeload" by withholding money unions need to bargain effectively. Protesters in the Capitol gallery chanted "Shame on you!" as the measures were adopted. Union backers clogged the hallways and grounds shouting "No justice, no peace." And Democrats warned that hard feelings over the legislation and Republicans' refusal to hold committee hearings or allow a statewide referendum would be long lasting. U.S. Sen. Carl Levin and other Democrats in the state's congressional delegation met with Snyder on Monday and urged him to slow things down. "For millions of Michigan workers, this is no ordinary debate," Levin said after the House vote. "It's an assault on their right to have their elected bargaining agent negotiate their pay, benefits and working conditions, and to have all who benefit from such negotiations share in some way in the cost of obtaining them." The crowds were considerably smaller than those drawn by right-to-work legislation in Indiana earlier this year and in Wisconsin in 2011 during consideration of a law curtailing collective bargaining rights for most state employees. Those measures provoked weeks of intense debate, with Democrats boycotting sessions to delay action and tens of thousands of activists occupying statehouses. In Michigan, Republicans acted so quickly that opponents had little time to plan massive resistance. Snyder and GOP leaders announced their intentions last Thursday. Within hours, the bills were hurriedly pushed through the Senate as powerless Democrats objected. After a legally required five-day waiting period, the House approved final passage. The governor said he saw no reason not to sign the bills immediately, especially with demonstrators still hoping to dissuade him. "They can finish up, and they can go home because they know ... making more comments on that is not going to change the outcome," he said. "I view this as simply trying to get this issue behind us." Snyder said he expects the law to be challenged in court but believes it will stand. He said unions were largely responsible for its divisiveness, having ignored his advice and pushed an unsuccessful November ballot initiative seeking to make right-to-work laws unconstitutional. The bitter campaign over the ballot measure put the issue on center-stage. "Introducing freedom-to-work in Michigan will contribute to our state's economic comeback while preserving the roles of unions and collective bargaining," Snyder said. Protesters began assembling before daylight outside the sandstone-and-brick Capitol, chanting and whistling in the chilly darkness and waving placards with slogans such as "Stop the War on Workers." Others joined a three-block march to the building, some wearing coveralls and hard hats. Valerie Constance, a reading instructor for the Wayne County Community College District and member of the American Federation of Teachers, sat on the Capitol steps with a sign shaped like a tombstone. It read: "Here lies democracy." "I do think this is a very sad day in Michigan history," Constance said. The crowds filled the rotunda area, beating drums and chanting. The chorus rose to a deafening thunder as House members voted. Later, protesters surged toward a building across the street housing Snyder's office. Two people were arrested when they tried to get inside, state police said. By late afternoon, the demonstrators had mostly dispersed. The governor insisted the matter wasn't handled with undue haste, calling the debate in the House and Senate a "healthy discussion." Michigan gives the right-to-work movement its strongest foothold yet in the Rust Belt, where the 2010 election and tea party movement produced assertive Republican majorities that have dealt unions repeated setbacks. Opponents said they would press Snyder to use his line-item veto authority to remove a $1 million appropriation from the bills, making them eligible for a statewide referendum. But the House swiftly rejected a Democratic amendment to that effect. Lawmakers who backed the bills "will be held accountable at the ballot box in 2014," said state Rep. Tim Greimel, the incoming House Democratic leader. But Sen. John Proos, a Republican from St. Joseph who voted for both bills, predicted that objections would fade as the shift in policy brings more jobs to Michigan.

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An ‘Encore’ Life Beckons … on the Far Side of Midlife

Marion Jackson’s airy, light-filled studio is filled with Brazilian art and sculpture. It sits on the third floor of a five-story, 100,000-square-foot industrial building in downtown Detroit that opened in 1927 to house the service department for Pontiac. The Corvette was later designed there. But that was before the U.S. auto industry declined, and the neighborhood became a wasteland of abandoned buildings. Not anymore. Today, 250 start-up companies inhabit the renovated building, which is the centerpiece of a business incubator called TechTown. Jackson’s venture, Con/Vida—in Spanish, “with life”—sells indigenous art from Latin America and curates exhibitions for galleries and museums. Jackson, 70, retired as an art-history professor at Detroit’s Wayne State University last year and applied her knowledge of northeastern Brazil to the pursuit of a second career as Con/Vida’s codirector. This new chapter in Jackson’s work life, much like the building the studio inhabits, amounts to a kind of adaptive reuse—of skills instead of space. In this, she has company. TechTown is run by Randal Charlton, a 71-year-old former jazz impresario and serial entrepreneur, whose human-tissue company was the resurrected building’s first tenant. TechTown, an independent nonprofit, was launched a decade ago by Wayne State—which recently hired 77-year-old Allan Gilmour, a former Ford Motor chief financial officer, as its president. By the prevailing definitions, all three of them are in old age—often portrayed as a wasteland of its own. We’re set to become “a planet that’s a whole lot more crowded—with old people,” Phillip Longman, a senior research fellow on health policy at the New America Foundation, lamented in the September/October issue of Foreign Policy. He and other scholars who predict the “hyper-aging” of the developed world—when walkers will outnumber strollers—worry about too few working-age adults having to support too many children and retirees. But economists such as Stanford University’s John Shoven find these gloomy forecasts “deeply flawed” because, he has written, of “the misleading way in which we measure age” as longevity becomes reality for more and more Americans. Our notions of old age are themselves old-fashioned, reflecting a time when the typical 60-something was physically worn out from laboring in an auto plant or some other factory. In recent years, scholars in a range of academic disciplines report seeing signs of a new stage of life between the prime working years and full retirement. Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot, a Harvard education professor, calls this phase the “third chapter,” after childhood and younger adulthood, defining it as “the generative space” between 50 and 75 years old. Cultural anthropologist Mary Catherine Bateson—Margaret Mead’s daughter—labels the period “Adulthood II.” The creation of a new stage of life may seem counterintuitive. However, phases of life aren’t natural phenomena, like the seasons of the year, but rather social constructions. Consider adolescence. The concept didn’t exist until 1904, when G. Stanley Hall, a 60-year-old psychologist emerging from his own midlife crisis, wrote a book of more than 1,000 pages titled Adolescence. He was describing an extended period between childhood and adulthood free from grown-up responsibilities. The concept had a romantic tinge, but it grew out of fears that in a period of rapid industrialization, urbanization, and immigration, these minors would be running wild—anxieties that inspired laws requiring high school attendance and banning child labor. Adolescents began to be called “teenagers” after Seventeen magazine began publishing in 1944. Hall, as it happens, also introduced the idea of a new stage on the other side of midlife. In a book published in 1922, he described an “Indian summer” between the middle years and old age. Humans, he reflected, “rarely come to anything like a masterly grip til the shadows begin to slant eastward.” The book’s title, Senescence, may help explain why the concept didn’t catch on. But will it now? That’s hard to say. Before the Great Recession struck, the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicted a more than fivefold gain in labor-force participation by Americans over 55, compared with younger age groups. The economic downturn has intensified this pressure to extend working lives, while in other ways it has hurt. The unemployment rate for Americans age 55 and older was only 6.4 percent in November. But those who do lose their jobs tend to be unemployed far longer than younger workers. Fewer than a quarter of workers over 50 who lost their jobs from mid-2008 through 2009, the Urban Institute reported, found work within a year. Even so, older Americans appear to be trying to fashion a working life beyond the middle years—and often succeeding. Entrepreneurship, for one thing, is rising. For 11 of the 15 years from 1996 to 2010, Americans between the ages of 55 and 64 had the highest rate of entrepreneurial activity of any age group, according to the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. Twice as many founders of U.S. technology companies were over age 50 as were under 25. Across the socioeconomic spectrum, 9 percent of Americans ages 44 to 70 have launched “encore” careers, according to a 2011 study by Penn Schoen Berland. Their paying jobs, part- or full-time, are often in the public sector—as teachers, nurses, home health aides, and the like—or with nonprofit groups. The practical idealism of these late careers may reflect a shift in values as people mature and focus more on activities meant to contribute to society’s greater good. Such late-stage jobs fit nicely within the socially beneficial lines of work that Northeastern University economist Barry Bluestone has predicted will need more labor: education, health care, nonprofit community groups, religious organizations, and government. An encore career may entail some preparation. The number of over-50 Americans entering divinity school has doubled since 1990. A Catholic seminary near Milwaukee, the Sacred Heart School of Theology, specializes in training second-career priests—widowers, mainly. This past fall, high-tech billionaire Steve Poizner and former Hollywood studio executive Sherry Lansing announced a $15 million partnership with the University of California (Los Angeles) to launch the Encore Career Institute, a program of continuing education aimed at baby boomers. The American Association of Community Colleges has started an initiative to accommodate the growth of the over-50 student population, which increased by 17 percent from 2007 to 2009. These things are happening without much of a push from Washington. After World War II, the GI Bill helped ex-soldiers gain an education and thrive. Nowadays, the federal Troops to Teachers initiative helps military personnel, many of them retired, earn a degree in education. But aspiring encore careerists can’t look to the government for much more help. A 2009 law promoting national service established Encore Fellowships for adults who want to move into nonprofit or public-sector employment, but Congress hasn’t appropriated a cent to fund them. Unless Washington summons up the desire—and money—to urge this transition along, the future of encore careers will depend on the private sector. And on a generation’s entrenched culture. As baby boomers live longer and wrestle with retirement, they won’t accede easily. The willful generation that Time magazine named as its Man of the Year—“25 and Under,” in 1966—never has.

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Are Connected Baby Boomers Antisocial?

Each day millions of people of all ages around the world use the Internet to communicate. Friends and family can instantly share thoughts, pictures, and even videos of events happening in their lives. Social media has enhanced creativity through sites such as YouTube and encouraged us to share our lives in as intimate detail as we choose on Facebook. [See Retirees Fastest-Growing Users of Social Networks.] But is all of this sharing, tweeting, four-squaring, and texting adding to our quality of life? Virtual contact is hardly as fulfilling and impactful as communicating face to face with a fellow human being. Baby boomers who are online all the time may be missing something more important. Antisocial social media. Take a moment and think back to a time when you were at a restaurant and no iPhones were being used by patrons. Any luck? You probably witnessed couples sitting across the table from one another having a nice dinner. But instead of conversing, each had their own mobile device in hand and was lost in communicating with someone not sitting at their table. Few people can resist snatching up their iPhone each time a new e-mail arrives. Is it really that important? The problem is, by putting the remote person at the forefront of your attention, you neglect the flesh and blood person sitting beside you. And the message is apparent that your virtual friend is more important than your real friend. [See How to Tweet Your Way to Retirement Goals.] Young people these days have some of the fastest thumbs you have ever seen, seasoned by years of frenetic texting and Internet surfing. Their wit and humor comes across in links they share and clips they reference. But have you tried to have a real conversation with them without access to a mobile device? How effectively do they engage without the help of a video clip or other special effects? Effective communication skills are learned over time and perfected through practice. Just like texting, the more you do it, the better you get. Conversely, if you do not practice you are less adept. There is real value in social media to the extent you reach out to people that you would not otherwise be in contact with. My daughter and me text each other almost every day. But a little balance between virtual and real life is not a bad thing. It's better to work on both sets of skills. I enjoy the cute cat videos and the laughing baby clips just as much as anyone else. But losing Internet connectivity should not be more important than losing our connection with real people around us.

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Advocates: More gay-friendly senior housing needed

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — At age 62, Donald Carter knows his arthritis and other age-related infirmities will not allow him to live indefinitely in his third-floor walk-up apartment in Philadelphia. But as a low-income renter, Carter has limited options. And as a gay black man, he's concerned his choice of senior living facilities might be narrowed further by the possibility of intolerant residents or staff members. "The system as it stands is not very accommodating," Carter said. "I don't really want to see any kind of negative attitude or lack of service because anyone ... is gay or lesbian." ___ EDITOR'S NOTE — This is the latest in the ongoing AP-APME joint project looking at the aging of the baby boomers and the impact this so-called silver tsunami will have on the communities in which they live. ___ Many gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender seniors fear discrimination, disrespect or worse by health care workers and residents of elder housing facilities, ultimately leading many back into the closet after years of being open, experts say. That anxiety takes on new significance as the first of the 77 million baby boomers turns 65 this year. At least 1.5 million seniors are gay, a number expected to double by 2030, according to SAGE, the New York-based group Services and Advocacy for GLBT Elders. Recognizing the need, developers in Philadelphia have secured a site and initial funding for what would be one of the nation's few GLBT-friendly affordable housing facilities. They hope to break ground on a 52-unit, $17 million building for seniors in 2013. Anti-discrimination laws prohibit gay-only housing, but projects can be made GLBT-friendly through marketing and location. And while private retirement facilities targeted at the gay community exist, such residences are often out of reach for all but the wealthiest seniors. Census figures released this month indicate about 49 percent of Americans over 65 could be considered poor or low-income. Gays are also less likely to have biological family to help out with informal caregiving, either through estrangement or being childless, making them more dependent on outside services. And that makes them more vulnerable, SAGE executive director Michael Adams said. "They cannot at all assume that they will be treated well or given the welcome mat," he said. Cities including San Francisco and Chicago also have projects on the drawing board. But the first and, so far, only affordable housing complex for gay elders to be built in the United States is Triangle Square-Hollywood in Los Angeles. Open since 2007, the $22 million facility has 104 units available to any low-income senior 62 and over, gay or straight, according to executive director Mark Supper. Residents pay monthly rent on a sliding scale, from about $200 to $800, depending on their income. About 35 units are set aside for seniors with HIV/AIDS and for those at risk of becoming homeless, Supper said. The Triangle's population is about 90 percent GLBT and it has a waiting list of about 200 people. The project's developer, Gay & Lesbian Elder Housing, plans to build a second facility in Southern California in the next 18 months, Supper said. But what took so long for the need to recognized? Chris Bartlett, executive director of the GLBT William Way Center in Philadelphia, noted that advocates spent the better part of two decades devoting their energy to programs for those affected by HIV or AIDS, which were decimating the gay community. While AIDS remains a priority, Bartlett said, the crisis mentality has passed and allowed the community to focus on other things. He said he looks forward to the Way Center providing social services at the planned Philadelphia senior housing facility, in a sense repaying those who led the gay liberation movement. "Don't we owe it to them ... to ensure that they have an experience as elders that's worthy of what they gave to our community?" Bartlett said. The Philadelphia group has been trying to get its project off the ground for about eight years but has been stymied by location problems, a tough economy and stiff competition for federal housing tax credits. Rejected once for the credits, developers recently reapplied and hope for a different answer this spring, said Mark Segal, director of the Dr. Magnus Hirschfeld Fund, which is spearheading the project. It's planned for a thriving section of the city affectionately known as the Gayborhood. "I'm extremely optimistic," said Segal, also publisher of the Philadelphia Gay News. However, Adams said the real solution lies not only in building more facilities, but in cultural competency training for staffers at existing elder programs. The Philadelphia Corporation on Aging, the private nonprofit that serves the city's seniors, began offering such seminars to health care workers a couple of years ago, said Tom Shea, the agency's director of training. "They're going to be seeing a diverse slice of the aging population in Philadelphia ... and we need to be sensitive to all their needs," Shea said. Adams suggested that discrimination faced by today's GLBT elders could diminish in the decades ahead, since he said opinion research shows that younger generations are less likely to harbor anti-gay biases than older generations. "So we hope that the passage of time will provide part of the solution," he said. "But of course, today's LGBT elders can't wait for that." Jackie Adams, 54, of Philadelphia, said being diagnosed with AIDS many years ago meant she never thought she'd live long enough to need elder housing. But now Adams, who was born male and lives as a female, is part of a local initiative focused on GLBT senior issues.

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Mental Decline Can Start at 45, Study Finds

THURSDAY, Jan. 5 (HealthDay News) -- Sorry, Boomers, but a new study suggests that memory, reasoning and comprehension can start to slip as early as age 45. This finding runs counter to conventional wisdom that mental decline doesn't begin before 60, the researchers added. "Cognitive function in normal, healthy adults begins to decline earlier than previously thought," said study author Archana Singh-Manoux. "It is widely believed that cognitive ability does not decline before the age of 60. We were able to show robust cognitive decline even in individuals aged 45 to 49 years," added Singh-Manoux, research director at INSERM's Center for Research in Epidemiology & Population Health at the Paul-Brousse Hospital in Paris. These findings should be put in context of the link between cognitive function and the dementia, Singh-Manoux said. "Previous research shows small differences in cognitive performance in earlier life to predict larger differences in risk of dementia in later life," she said. Understanding cognitive aging might enable early identification of those at risk for dementia, Singh-Manoux said. The report was published in the Jan. 5 issue of BMJ. For the study, Singh-Manoux and colleagues collected data on nearly 5,200 men and 2,200 women who took part in the Whitehall II cohort study. The study, which began in 1985, followed British civil servants from the age of 45 to 70. Over 10 years, starting in 1997, the participants' cognitive function was tested three times. The researchers assessed memory, vocabulary, hearing and vision. Singh-Manoux's group found that over time, test scores for memory, reasoning and vocabulary skills all dropped. The decline was faster among the older participants, they added. Among men aged 45 to 49, reasoning skills declined by nearly 4 percent, and for those aged 65 to 70 those skills dropped by about nearly 10 percent. For women, the decline in reasoning approached 5 percent for those aged 45 to 49 and about 7 percent for those 65 to 70, the researchers found. "Greater awareness of the fact that our cognitive status is not intact until deep old age might lead individuals to make changes in their lifestyle and improve [their] cardiovascular health, to reduce risk of adverse cognitive outcomes in old age," Singh-Manoux said. Research shows that "what is good for the heart is good for the head," which makes living a healthy lifestyle a part of slowing cognitive decline, she said. Targeting patients who have risk factors for heart disease such as obesity, high blood pressure and high cholesterol might not only protect their hearts but also prevent dementia in old age, the researchers said. "Understanding cognitive aging will be one of the challenges of this century," especially as people are living longer, they added. In addition, knowing when cognitive decline is likely to start can help in treatment, because the earlier treatment starts the more likely it is to be effective, the researchers noted. Francine Grodstein, an associate professor of medicine at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston and author of an accompanying editorial, said more research is needed into how to prevent early cognitive decline. "If cognitive decline may start at younger ages, then efforts to prevent cognitive decline may need to start at younger ages," she said. "New research should focus on understanding what factors may contribute to cognitive decline in younger persons," Grodstein added. "This is consistent with what we have seen in other studies and the cognitive changes that occur as we age," said Heather M. Snyder, senior associate director of medical & scientific relations at the Alzheimer's Association. These changes do not mean that all these people will go on to develop Alzheimer's disease or another dementia, Snyder noted. "It is important to remember that the cognitive changes associated with aging are very different from the cognitive changes that are associated with Alzheimer's disease," she stressed. Although some of these people may go on to develop Alzheimer's disease there is currently no way to tell who is at risk, Snyder said. "This is why it is so important to continue to investigate biological changes that occur in the earliest stages, because it is difficult to [determine] the cognitive changes that are associated with Alzheimer's disease," she said. Snyder noted that Alzheimer's disease can start 15 to 20 years before symptoms are apparent, which makes finding a biological marker so important. "If a therapeutic is available, we can intervene at that point," she said.

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Why Some People Live to 110

SUNDAY, Jan. 8 (HealthDay News) -- People who live 110 years or longer have as many disease-associated genes as those in the general population, but they may also be blessed with protective genes that help them live so long, researchers report. The team of U.S. scientists noted that supercentenarians, as they are called, are extremely rare, with only one per 5 million people in developed nations. There is growing evidence that genetics play a major role in living to such an old age. In what they describe as a first-of-a-kind study, the researchers analyzed the whole genome sequences of a man and a woman who lived past the age of 114 and found that they had as many disease-associated genes as other people. For example, the man had 37 genetic mutations associated with increased risk for colon cancer. "In fact, he had presented with an obstructing colon cancer earlier in his life that had not metastasized and was cured with surgery. He was in phenomenal cognitive and physical shape near the time of his death," study senior author Dr. Thomas Perls, director of the New England Centenarian Study, said in a Boston University Medical Center news release. The woman had numerous genetic variations associated with age-related disease, such as heart disease, cancer and Alzheimer's disease. She did develop congestive heart failure and mild cognitive impairment, but these conditions didn't become evident until she was more than 108 years old. "The presence of these disease-associated variants is consistent with our and other researchers' findings that centenarians carry as many disease-associated genes as the general population," Perls said. "The difference may be that the centenarians likely have longevity-associated variants that cancel out the disease genes. That effect may extend to the point that the diseases don't occur -- or, if they do, are much less pathogenic or markedly delayed towards the end of life, in these individuals who are practically living to the limit of the human lifespan." The study was published Jan. 3 in the journal Frontiers in Genetics, and researchers will be able to access the information at the U.S. National Institutes of Health data repository.

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65-and-Older Population Soars

There are now more Americans age 65 and older than at any other time in U.S. history. According to a new Census Bureau report, there were 40.3 million people age 65 and older on April 1, 2010, up 5.3 percent from 35 million in 2010 (and just 3.1 million in 1900). "The population age 65 and older has increased notably over time," says Carrie Werner, a Census Bureau statistician and author of the report. "It is expected to increase more rapidly over the next decade as more baby boomers start to turn 65 in 2011." [See 10 Cities With the Most People Over 65.] The 65-and-older population jumped 15.1 percent between 2000 and 2010, compared with a 9.7 percent increase for the total U.S. population. People age 65 and older now make up 13 percent of the total population, compared with 12.4 percent in 2000 and 4.1 percent in 1900. Females significantly outnumber males at older ages, but the gap is narrowing. In 2010, there were 90.5 males for every 100 females among people age 65 and older, up from 88.1 males per 100 females the same age in 2000. "Women outnumber men in the older population at every single year of age," says Werner. "Males showed more rapid growth in the older population than females over the past decade." In the 2010 Census, there were approximately twice as many women as men beginning at age 89. This point occurred about four years older than it did in 2000, and six years older than in 1990. [See Tips for Baby Boomers Reaching Retirement Age in 2012.] All regions of the country have seen growth in their 65-and-older populations since the 2000 Census. The older population is growing most rapidly in the West, where the number of senior citizens increased 23.5 percent, from 6.9 million in 2000 to 8.5 million in 2010. The Northeast is home to the largest percentage of people 65 years and older (14.1 percent), followed by the Midwest (13.5 percent), the South (13.0 percent), and the West (11.9 percent). Florida has the greatest proportion of people who are at least 65 (17.3 percent), followed by West Virginia (16 percent), Maine (15.9 percent), Pennsylvania (15.4 percent), and Iowa (14.9 percent). The state with the smallest share of 65-and-older individuals is Alaska (7.7 percent). Rhode Island is the only state that experienced a decrease in the number of residents age 65 and older. The older population declined 0.3 percent, from 152,402 in 2000 to 151,881 in 2010. "The fairly stagnant Rhode Island economy during periods of economic expansion elsewhere in the '80s and '90s meant fewer people at peak job earning ages arriving and more people leaving," says Andrew Foster, an economics and community health professor and director of the Population Studies and Training Center at Brown University. "However, recent arrivals of Hispanics and the attractiveness of Rhode Island as a place to live are leading to substantial growth in the 55-to-65 age range? so it is likely that Rhode island will see an increase in 65-plus by 2020." The District of Columbia's older population also decreased from 69,898 in 2000 to 68,809 in 2010, a 1.6 percent decline. Scottsdale, Ariz. had the highest percentage of people 65 and older among places with 100,000 or more people in 2010 (20 percent), compared with the national average of 13 percent. "Scottsdale, like much of Arizona, has attracted a large number of older migrants from other parts of the country," says Victor Agadjanian, director of the Center for Population Dynamics at Arizona State University. Four Florida cities, Clearwater, Hialeah, Cape Coral, and Miami, are also among the 10 cities with the highest percentages of senior citizens. Surprise, Ariz., Honolulu, Metairie, La., Warren, Mich., and Independence, Mo., also have large proportions of retirement-age residents. [See 11 Retirement Benefit Changes Coming in 2012.] West Jordan, Utah, has the lowest percentage of people age 65 and up (4.6 percent), followed by Killeen, Texas, (5.2 percent) and Frisco, Texas (5.4 percent). "Higher concentrations of people in the younger ages resulted in a smaller relative share of older adults in 2010," according to the Census Bureau report. Many of the places with the lowest proportions of older residents have large populations of young people due to the presence of a college or military base. Killeen, Texas, for example, is near Fort Hood military base, and Provo, Utah, where people 65 and older make up just 5.8 percent of the population, is home to a large university.

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Optimism Is Key to Successful Aging

A resilient attitude may be the secret to successful aging, perhaps even trumping good physical health, finds a new study. Researchers surveyed 1,006 randomly selected adults in San Diego, Calif., between the ages of 50 and 99 (with a mean age of about 77) through a 25-minute phone interview, followed by a mail-in survey. In addition to evaluating the participants' physical health conditions, such as chronic disease and disability, the survey looked at more subjective factors like adults' social engagement and self-assessments of their overall health and degree of successful aging. The team found that older adults with low physical functioning but high resilience — the ability to bounce back from negative events or setbacks — had comparable self-ratings of their degree of successful aging to those of physically healthy people who were less resilient. Meanwhile, people who were less physically able but had no or low levels of depression reported self-ratings similar to those of physically healthy people with moderate to severe depression, the study indicated. "Perfect physical health is neither necessary nor sufficient," said the study's lead investigator Dilip V. Jeste, a geriatric psychiatrist of the University of California at San Diego. "There is potential for enhancing successful aging by fostering resilience and treating or preventing depression." Overall, the researchers found that a higher self-rating of successful aging was more likely among those with higher education, better cognitive function, better perceived physical and mental health, less depression and greater optimism and resilience. Previous studies have shown seniors tend to have quite positive outlooks — especially compared with younger adult generations — despite the physical and cognitive decline associated with old age. A 2008 analysis of data from the General Social Survey of the National Opinion Research Center indicated that about half of U.S. residents in their late 80s report being very happy, while the figure for younger adult age groups sinks to a third or less. And study of almost 45,000 German adults from 1984 to 2007 found that happiness levels dip during middle age but rebound by about age 60. Jeste led another study in 2005 that surveyed Americans ages 60 to 98 who had struggled with cancer, heart disease, diabetes, mental health conditions or a range of other problems. Even in the face of their ills, the participants rated their degree of successful aging quite high, which Jeste said at the time could be attributed to optimism and effective coping styles. Jeste, who is the current president of the American Psychiatric Association, said the results of the new study suggest aging doesn't have to be negatively viewed as a public health problem in the United States, where there are about 40 million adults over the age of 65. "There is considerable discussion in public forums about the financial drain on the society due to rising costs of health care for older adults — what some people disparagingly label the 'silver tsunami,'" Jeste said. "But, successfully aging older adults can be a great resource for younger generations."

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Volcanoes, Not Meteorite, Killed Dinosaurs, Scientist Argues

SAN FRANCISCO — Volcanic activity in modern-day India, not an asteroid, may have killed the dinosaurs, according to a new study. Tens of thousands of years of lava flow from the Deccan Traps, a volcanic region near Mumbai in present-day India, may have spewed poisonous levels of sulfur and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and caused the mass extinction through the resulting global warming and ocean acidification, the research suggests. The findings, presented Wednesday (Dec. 5) here at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, are the latest volley in an ongoing debate over whether an asteroid or volcanism killed off the dinosaurs about 65 million years ago in the mass die-off known as the K-T extinction. "Our new information calls for a reassessment of what really caused the K-T mass extinction," said Gerta Keller, a geologist at Princeton University who conducted the study. For several years, Keller has argued that volcanic activity killed the dinosaurs. But proponents of the Alvarez hypothesis argue that a giant meteorite impact at Chicxulub, Mexico, around 65 million years ago released toxic amounts of dust and gas into the atmosphere, blocking out the sun to cause widespread cooling, choking the dinosaurs and poisoning sea life. The meteorite may impact may also have set off volcanic activity, earthquakes and tsunamis. [Wipe Out: History's Most Mysterious Extinctions] The new research "really demonstrates that we have Deccan Traps just before the mass extinction, and that may contribute partially or totally to the mass extinction," said Eric Font, a geologist at the University of Lisbon in Portugal, who was not involved in the research. Sea cockroach In 2009, oil companies drilling off the Eastern coast of India uncovered eons-old lava-filled sediments buried nearly 2 miles (3.3 kilometers) below the ocean surface. Keller and her team got permission to analyze the sediments, finding they contained plentiful fossils from around the boundary between the Cretaceous-Tertiary periods, or K-T Boundary, when dinosaurs vanished. The sediments bore layers of lava that had traveled nearly 1,000 miles (1,603 km) from the Deccan Traps. Today, the volcanic region spans an area as big as France, but was nearly the area of Europe when it was active during the late Cretaceous period, said Adatte Thierry, a geologist from the University of Lausanne in France who collaborated with Keller on the research. Within the fossil record, plankton species got fewer, smaller and maintained less elaborate shells immediately after lava layers, which would indicate it happened in years after the eruptions. Most species gradually died off. In their wake, a hardy plankton genus with a small, nondescript exoskeleton, called Guembilitria, exploded within the fossil record. Keller's team found similar trends in their analysis of marine sediments from Egypt, Israel, Spain, Italy and Texas. While Guembilitria species represented between 80 percent and 98 percent of the fossils, other species disappeared. "We call it a disaster opportunist," Keller told LiveScience. "It's like a cockroach — whenever things go bad, it will be the one that survives and thrives." Guembilitria may have come to dominance worldwide when the huge amounts of sulfur (in the form of acid rain) released by the Deccan Traps fell into the oceans. There, it would've chemically binded with calcium, making that calcium unavailable to sea creatures that needed the element to build their shells and skeletons. Around the same time in India, fossil evidence of land animals and plants vanished, suggesting the volcanoes caused mass extinctions on both land and in the sea there. Global impact In past work, the team has also found evidence at Chicxulub that casts doubt on the notion of a meteorite causing the extinction. Sediments containing iridium, the chemical signature of an asteroid, show up after the extinction occurred, contradicting the notion that it could have caused a sudden die-off, Keller said. A meteorite impact also would not have produced enough toxic sulfur and carbon dioxide to match the levels seen in the rocks, so it may have worsened the mass extinction, but couldn't have caused it, she said.

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Hovering Drone Grabs Spotlight with 6-Foot Arm

Look out humans — a robot floating in midair with a 6-foot arm now exists outside the realm of science fiction films like "Star Wars." The U.S. military recently tested a hovering drone's ability to attach its claw to a target object. The "V-Bat" is a vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) drone that can fly like a robotic aircraft and hover in place while standing upright on its tail, according to its makers at the MLB Company. The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency funded work to make a "vision system" for V-Bat that allowed the hovering robot to attach its 1-pound claw to a ladder. "Our goal with the unmanned aerial vehicle payload emplacement demonstration was to show we could quickly develop and integrate the right technology to make this work," said Dan Patt, DARPA program manager. "The success of the demonstration further enables the capabilities of future autonomous, aerial vehicles." DARPA wants to construct future drones capable of precisely delivering small objects in tight spaces. V-Bat's vision system coordinated with the drone's onboard GPS so that the robot could approach and place its payload on the ladder as it hovered in midair. The successful experiment could turn drones into even more capable delivery messengers for both the U.S. military and civilian uses. U.S. Marines already get deliveries from robotic helicopters in Afghanistan, but soldiers must attach and detach the helicopter payloads manually. Many robot vision systems still struggle to accurately identify objects, let alone coordinate a midair handoff delivery. The experiment also proved challenging because a hovering robot does not necessarily represent the most stable platform. Many past hover vehicles have struggled to maintain stability in midflight. Still, the V-Bat had a backup advantage in case of an accidental tip-over. It could survive due to its nose protection and a duct shielding its rotor and vanes. The MLB Company's description of V-Bat suggests that the drone could one day carry out missions for the U.S. military ranging from aerial mapping to anti-piracy.

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Nail Salon Lamps Don't Raise Skin Cancer Risk

While the risk of developing skin cancer is known to be linked with exposure to ultraviolet light, it's been less clear whether the UV lamps used in nail salons might raise the risk of skin cancer. Now, a new study suggests these lamps don't increase skin cancer risk. In the study, researchers looked at three commonly used UV nail lamps. They measured the light, in terms of its likely carcinogenic effects, and calculated the "UV dose" that a user would receive during a 10-minute nail-drying session. Not all ultraviolet lamps are the same — for example, people with the skin condition psoriasis may be treated with lamps, and studies have shown these "narrowband UVB" treatments raise the risk of skin cancer only minimally, compared with the more damaging rays of tanning salon lamps. The new study showed that between 13,000 and 40,000 nail-drying sessions would be needed before a person would receive the same UV dose as a person with psoriasis who received light treatments for their condition, according to researchers Dr. Alina Markova, of the Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, and Dr. Martin Weinstock, of Brown University. That's about 250 years of weekly manicures. The findings mean that using these UV lamps "does not produce a clinically signi?cant increased risk of developing skin cancer," the researchers wrote. Two previous studies have looked at this question, the researchers said. In a 2009 report, researchers concluded that UV nail lamps were a risk factor in the cases of two women who developed skin cancer known as squamous cell carcinomas on the backs of their hands. In the other study, a laboratory hired by the nail salon industry tested many UV nail lamps and concluded UV light levels emitted were low and safe. However, researchers of the new study noted that report about the two women was anecdotal, and did not include measurements of the UV light from the lamps. They also said the methods used in the industry-funded study were inappropriate. "Dermatologists and primary-care physicians may reassure patients regarding the safety of these devices," the researchers wrote in their article, published Thursday (Dec. 6) in the Journal of Investigative Dermatology.

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